美国网友评论:进入群岛防御阻止中国,战略长文 – 朝内红吧
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美国网友评论:进入群岛防御阻止中国,战略长文

海外看中国 大朝哥 17480浏览 0评论
美国媒体:“群岛防御”战略利用了亚洲的海上地理优势。不过,这种战略不能限制中国,而是曾经限制住了德意志帝国。但亚洲的岛链远比不列颠群岛更容易被渗透。美国真实防务世界网站3月3日发表美国海军战争学院战略学教授詹姆士·R·霍姆斯的文章称,美国防务政策专家安德鲁·克雷皮内维奇曾撰写过一篇重要文章,认为应该在亚洲构建“群岛防御”。克雷皮内维奇是华盛顿战略与预算评估中心主任。
原文标题:How to Deter China: Enter Archipelagic Defense
来源:http://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2015/03/03/how_to_deter_china_enter_archipelagic_defense__107682-comments.html#disqus_thread
译文来源:龙腾网 -作者:rumor四起
评论内容:大朝哥翻译
How to Deter China: Enter Archipelagic Defense
美国网友评论:进入群岛防御阻止中国
海上舰队

海上舰队

Andrew Krepinevich has an important essay in the March/April issue of Foreign Affairs. The article constitutes his brief for “archipelagic defense” in Asia. Krepinevich is the grand wizard of the Washington, DC-based Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and author of the standard work on the U.S. Army in Vietnam. He espouses emplacing missile-armed troops along Asia’s “first island chain” as a deterrent. Anti-ship and anti-air units acting in concert with surface, submarine, and air forces could bar passage through the narrow seas that separate the islands.
美国右翼(Andrew Krepinevich)在外交事务三/四月刊中有一篇重要的文章,阐述了他的亚洲“群岛防御”的观点。美国右翼(Andrew Krepinevich)是华盛顿特区战略及预算评估中心主人,并且是有关越战的权威专家。

他主张在亚洲“第一岛链”部署配备导弹的部队作为威慑,反舰和防空部队,海上部队,潜艇部队以及空军可以协同作战,封锁群岛之间的海峡。

Or, more accurately, fortifying the islands would threaten to confine shipping and aircraft within the China seas. Krepinevich aims that threat squarely at China. If Beijing believes it, the leadership may refrain from future misadventures at fellow Asian powers’ expense. That’s a congenial thesis. Indeed, my longtime wingman Toshi Yoshihara and I have been pitching similar ideas for some years now, both together and separately. Always good to welcome a new ally.
更准确地说就是,加强第一岛链的防御会迫使舰船和飞机只能在中国海域内行动。Krepinevich的目的就是给中国造成直接威胁。如果北京也觉得有压力,那么领导层会在将来其他亚洲国家造成的突发事件上保持克制。Krepinevich的这种想法跟我们不谋而合,多年以来,我的固定搭档Toshi Yoshihara和我或单独或一起也一直在提类似的观点.对于这位新盟友,我们非常欢迎。
Archipelagic defense turns Asia’s nautical geography to advantage. Geography isn’t as forbidding for China as it was for, say, Imperial Germany. Fin de siècle Germany was an upstart empire whose leadership entertained grandiose naval ambitions. Unfortunately for Kaiser Wilhelm and his henchmen, their major seaborne rival, Great Britain, lay athwart the German Navy’s access to the open ocean. That made it a simple matter for Britain’s Royal Navy to bottle up its chief rival. And indeed, during World War I the Royal Navy mounted a “distant blockade” that made the North Sea into a dead sea imprisoning the German surface fleet. Afterward a German sea officer with a sharp pen quipped that his navy may as well have ruled the—landlocked—Caspian Sea!
群岛防御政策使亚洲的海域变得对我们很有利。中国所处的地势并不像德意志帝国那样封闭。20世纪末的自满的德意志帝国的领导人们雄心勃勃的打造一支强大的海军。但是对于凯撒威廉(国王)及他的亲信来说不幸的是,他们的主要的海运竞争对手成了他们海军走向深蓝的绊脚石。英国皇家海军轻而易举的就遏制住了德国。实际上,在一战中皇家海军的”远程封锁”策略使得北海成了一片死海,封锁了德国海面舰艇。后来一位德国海军军官讽刺的写道,他的海军部队最好还是去统治里海这个被内陆包围的湖泊。
Now, Asia’s offshore island chain is far more permeable than the British Isles. Beijing’s geostrategic dilemma pales by comparison with Berlin’s. Still, the islands enclose China’s entire shoreline, arcing southward from the Japanese home islands through the Ryukyus (including Okinawa, home to U.S.-Japanese forces), Taiwan, and the Philippines. Depending on how you construe this geographic feature, it meanders around the South China Sea rim, passing through the Indonesian archipelago before terminating at the Malacca Strait, East Asians’ most convenient entryway into the Indian Ocean. Or, the U.S. Defense Department’s annual reports on Chinese military power portray it as looping northward to terminate off central Vietnam.
现在看来,亚洲的沿岸岛链比不列颠群岛更容易渗透,北京地理位置上的困境比德国要小得多。但是这些岛链还是包围了中国全部的海岸线,岛链从日本本岛穿过琉球群岛(包括冲绳,据日美军基地)、台湾、菲律宾,构成了朝向南方一道弧形的链条。岛链蜿蜒环绕住南中国海,穿过印尼群岛然后终止于马六甲海峡—东亚地区进入印度洋最便利的通道,这种形势说明了什么取决于你自己怎么分析了。而美国防部一年一度的中国军力报告认为,岛链一直向北延伸到越南中部。
Some Chinese cartographers do just the opposite—tracing the island chain into the Indian Ocean and designating Diego Garcia as its western terminus. Such visuals concentrate minds, implying that a hostile alliance may rig a barricade all around China’s periphery. And indeed, such a doomsday prospect is increasingly thinkable. Naval technology has come a long way since Britain and Germany squared off in the North Sea. As Krepinevich observes, island defenders could deploy precision-guided missiles, sea mines, and an array of other weaponry—land-based implements of sea power—along the island chain.
一些中国的(*战略决策的)绘图者做的正好相反——沿着(*第一)岛链深入到印度洋,把迪戈加西亚岛【注1】标记为(*第一岛链在)西部的终点。这样的视野决定(*中国人)的意识,暗示着(*他们相信)敌意的国家通过结盟组成了一个包围圈环绕中国的周边。诚然,这种(*对中国人)末日般的想法正在越来越现实。海军科技自英国和德国在北海对峙以来已经日新月异。诚如Krepinevich所言,(*现在)群岛防御可以部署精确制导导弹、水雷和一系列其它武器——对海的陆基武器——在岛链之上了。
The product: a thicket of defenses that People’s Liberation Army (PLA) ships and aircraft would be hard-pressed to breach. Why make such an effort? Demonstrating the capability to make the island chain impassable would put Beijing on notice that it will pay a heavy penalty for grabbing territory and subverting the Asian order. Severing sea routes connecting China’s economy with overseas markets or natural-resource suppliers would exact a fearful toll. Cutting PLA forces off from overseas theaters would hobble China’s foreign policy. Compressing north-south movement into narrow lanes along the Asian seaboard would expose seagoing traffic to disruption or destruction virtually within sight of home.
(*群岛防御的)产品——对解放军舰艇和飞机的密集防御将使(*第一岛链)难以突破。为什么要这样做?难以突破的岛链会让北京明白,他的任何攫取领土和破坏亚洲秩序的行为都将遭到严厉的惩罚。切断中国经济与海外市场与能源供应的联系会是一个不可承受的威胁。把解放军与海外地区区隔开来将会使中国的外交政策遭受重挫。通过(*群岛防御)可以使海上交通暴露在(*岛链各)基地的打击与毁灭范围内,从而沿着亚洲的海岸由北向南(*把中国的活动范围)挤压到狭窄的近海海域。
An island cordon, then, is a Bad Thing from China’s standpoint. It would let the allies threaten to retaliate asymmetrically for, say, an assault on Taiwan, or to deny Beijing the access it craves to seas and skies beyond the island chain. If China believes the threat, it may desist from actions Washington and its allies want to discourage. That’s classic deterrence.
对于中国来说,这个岛链危害很大。但是如果中国要是攻打台湾或者要突破第一岛链,美国及其盟友肯定会对其施以报复。如果中国确实觉得这是一个威胁,那么它就不会去做,这正中美国及其盟友的下怀。这是一种经典的威慑方式。

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